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Thursday, August 14, 2014

SELANGOR’S FINAL COUNTDOWN

mt2014-corridors-of-power
Once HRH is satisfied that Khalid has indeed lost the support of the majority, he could request Khalid’s resignation. However, Khalid can in turn request HRH to consent to new state elections by dissolving the state assembly. That means Selangorians would be going to the polls around October or so.
THE CORDIDORSS OF POWER
Raja Petra Kamarudin
The events in Selangor are rapidly changing. Yesterday it was one thing and today another. One side can be winning the fight in the morning and lose it again in the evening. That is how fast things are moving.
But the final whistle has not been blown yet and until it is it would be very difficult to declare a winner. However, as it stands now, it appears like the Anwar Ibrahim team has got its 30 signatures to prove that Menteri Besar Khalid Ibrahim no longer has majority support in the Selangor state assembly.
It was only 28 versus 28 yesterday. But today, with the two PAS state representatives breaking ranks with their party, the 28 have increased to 30. So now it is 30 versus 26, unless the balance 13 from PAS also swing over to Anwar. Then it would be a clear 43 versus 13 and Khalid loses.
At the end of the day it is a numbers’ game and the latest result of this numbers’ game seems to be in favour of Anwar Ibrahim.
It looks like this is the final lap of the race, or maybe more appropriately the final countdown for Selangor. Khalid’s only hope was for the 15 PAS state reps to toe the party line and not break ranks. But after his meeting with PAS President Abdul Hadi Awang on Monday, Anwar knew that PAS would not back down from its stand so why the need to wait for the Sunday meeting?
Hence the two PAS state reps decided to pre-empt the Sunday meeting and make their move today. Maybe once PAS sees it has lost it might decide on Sunday to do the ‘noble’ thing — support the winner by supporting the move to oust Khalid and replace him with Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail.
In politics it is always wise to change sides and support the winner when the going gets tough. As the saying goes — when the going gets tough, change sides (or is it ‘when the going gets tough the tough get going’).
Anyway, it is now no longer about what Khalid is going to do. It is more about what PAS is going to do this Sunday. If PAS sticks to its guns then it might as well consider leaving Pakatan Rakyat or else it is either going to get kicked out or the Chinese are going to punish the party come the next general election.
The Chinese have made it very clear that PAS would never become a national party without Chinese support. Without the Chinese vote PAS would be merely a regional party in the Malay heartland. Hence PAS has to accommodate Chinese wishes and the removal of Khalid is one such wish amongst a half dozen or so others (such as Bibles using Allah must be permitted).
Statistics have proven that PAS cannot succeed in states such as Selangor, Perak and so on that have an almost balanced Malay-non-Malay population. Since Merdeka, PAS has been successful in areas where the Malays make up 80% or more of the voting population. Once it goes below 80%, or worse still, 60%, PAS has little chance of winning that seat — unless they get Chinese votes.
Chinese parties like DAP do not need 80% Chinese voters to win. PAS, however, cannot get away with that. It needs 80% Malay voters to win. That is the reality of the situation and history has proven this. This is because the Chinese are solidly (around 80-85%) behind DAP while the Malays are split 50-50 between PAS and Umno. That is the reason why this is so.
Dr Wan Azizah has written officially to seek an audience with His Royal Highness the Sultan of Selangor to present the 30 signatures as proof that Khalid has lost the support of the majority in the Selangor state assembly. This may only be possible towards the end of this month because HRH is currently not in Malaysia.
And if HRH accepts this as proof that Khalid has lost the support of the majority in the state assembly then the Menteri Besar has only two weeks left to serve, depending on what HRH decides to do.
HRH can either accept those 30 signatures as proof or he can ask Dr Wan Azizah to pass a vote of no confidence in the next state assembly sitting in November. Alternatively, HRH can summon these 30 one-by-one to personally ask them their stand. This can be done at the end of this month when the Sultan is back in the country.
Once HRH is satisfied that Khalid has indeed lost the support of the majority, he could request Khalid’s resignation. However, Khalid can in turn request HRH to consent to new state elections by dissolving the state assembly. That means Selangorians would be going to the polls around October or so.
I see the greatest loser in this latest development as PAS rather than Khalid. Khalid was going to exit politics and retire anyway at the end of his term, most likely in three years or so from now. So all it means is he would be retiring three years ahead of his planned retirement.
For PAS, however, the damage done is much greater. It would have to forget its aspiration of being part of the federal government if Pakatan Rakyat ever takes Putrajaya.
The biggest winner of all would be Wan Azmi Wan Hamzah. He would now see SPLASH being re-valued from RM250 million to RM2.5 billion.
Anwar Ibrahim supports this figure. Abdul Wahid Omar, the Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department in-charge of the Economic Planning Unit, also supports this RM2.5 billion valuation. Hence, with support from both the federal government and Anwar Ibrahim, Wan Azmi is going to get the RM2.5 billion that he is asking for.
Anwar Ibrahim Wahid Omar
Anwar Ibrahim and Abdul Wahid Omar both agree that SPLASH should get RM2.5 billion

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