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Thursday, October 2, 2014

Bisnes 101 Untuk Blogger UMNO : Why Did Petronas Pay A 77% Premium?



Hello kekawan Blogger UMNO. Dalam beberapa hari ini saya akan cuba bangkitkan beberapa isu berkenaan bisnes dan ekonomi untuk perkongsian kita bersama. Semoga kekawan akan cuba memahami sedikit isu-isu ni yang bakal memiskinkan (ataupun sudah memiskinkan) orang Melayu dulu. 

(By the way sebelum saya lupa, PM dah balik ke dari New York? Dah 12 hari orang tak nampak PM di Malaysia. Cuba check tengok.)

Baru ini Petronas umumkan bahawa mereka mungkin akan menarik keluar pelaburan sebanyak RM34 billion dalam projek gas asli di Kanada. 

Apa maksudnya 'menarik keluar pelaburan'? Apakah ianya serupa dengan mencabut gigi di klinik doktor gigi? Bila mencabut gigi, kita tidak dapat mengelak kesakitan bila disuntik ubat pelali. Juga kita akan kehilangan darah bila doktor mencabut gigi. Kita mesti akan merasa kesakitan dan mesti akan kehilangan darah. Tetapi di bawah jagaan doktor gigi, rasa sakit dan kehilangan darah keduanya terkawal.

Jadi kalaulah Petronas 'menarik keluar pelaburan' RM34 billion daripada syarikat gas asli di Kanada apakah tahap kesakitannya dan berapa banyakkah kehilangan darah yang terpaksa dialami?

Lebih pentingnya apakah kepakaran yang dapat mengurangkan kesakitan dan kehilangan darah? So, kita lihat sedikit berita berkenaan pelaburan awal Petronas dalam syarikat gas asli Kanada itu:


Maaf di sini saya berbahasa Inggeris sikit lah. Lebih cepat dan lebih senang menulis. 

First some TWO YEAR OLD  news about Petronas' Calgary, Canada project.

CALGARY, AB – June 28, 2012 – purchase by PETRONAS Canada of all of Progress’ (TSX:PRQ) outstanding common shares at a cash price of  C$20.45 per share. Including outstanding convertible debentures, the transaction is valued at approximately C$5.5 billion. 

· Cash price of C$20.45 per Progress share
· unanimous approval of Progress’ Board of Directors
· premium of 77% over closing price of C$11.55 on June 27, 2012
-  83% over 30-trading day average of C$11.18 per share on June 27, 2012.

Fuiyyo !!  Petronas paid $4.8 billion Canadian dollars. Lebih kurang RM14 beliyon (Ringgit).This was a 77% premium ABOVE the market price. And then Petronas also forked out another RM2.0 Billion to settle the hutang of this company.

(Jadi Kekawan Blogger UMNO, jumlahnya Petronas bayar Canadian $5.5 Beliyon atau  RM16.0 Beliyon untuk beli saham syarikat Progress Energy.)

But ignoring paying the hutang part, and using market price alone, it means the real market price was 77% less (ie RM14 billion less 77%) = RM7.9 Billion. 

Jadi jumlah nilai harga semua saham yang dibeli oleh Petronas sebenarnya hanya RM7.9 Beliyon.  Tetapi Petronas sanggup bayar duit 77%  lebih dari itu.  Petronas telah bayar RM14.0 Beliyon.  Why?

Boleh tak kekawan Blogger UMNO tolong tanya sikit? 

I have part of the answer but I cannot say it here. 

So now kalaulah Petronas nak "cabut gigi dan lari" (menarik keluar pelaburan) dari syarikat Progress Energy di Canada ini,  apa kah Petronas boleh dapat balik kesemua daripada pelaburan RM14 beliyon + RM2 beliyon =  RM16 beliyon itu?  

Biasanya bila kita batal pelaburan, mesti ada kerugian.  There is no way you can pull out of a project and not suffer some losses.  Cuma ini bukan beli kangkung di pasar. Ini oil and gas. Melibatkan berbeliyon - beliyon Ringgit Malaysia.  Duit rakyat.

So boleh tak Blogger UMNO tanya cikit kat PM ke, kat PMO ke atau kat Petronas ke?
And what is the share price of Progress Energy Alberta now? I dont know. I tried the Toronto Stock Exchange website tapi tak jumpa. I found this :

 


Progress Energy Resources Corp. (PRQ.DB)
Market: CDN Consolidated
$ 0 
Oct 1, 2014, 11:28 PM EDT
Change: 0 (0.00%)
Volume: 0
Day Low
N/A
Day High
N/A
52 Week Low
N/A
52 Week High
N/A















There is no price quote for Progress Energy Resources Corp. Maybe the company has been taken private. If taken private lagi bahaya. 

Blogger UMNO dengar ya - if a listed company is taken private the owners can do whatever they want without having to make public announcements or public disclosures.   So tanya lah sikit - apa status syarikat Progress Energy ini.

Now a little bit about harga minyak.  Kenapa harga minyak dinaikkan 20 sen satu liter? Pada hal diseluruh dunia harga minyak jatuh. 

Prices at the pump head below $3 in much of US

Posted: Sep 26, 2014 3:08 AM
 
By JONATHAN FAHEY
AP Energy Writer

NEW YORK (AP) - The price of a gallon of gasoline may soon start with a "2'' across much the country.

Gasoline prices typically decline in autumn, and this year they are being pulled even lower by falling global oil prices. By the end of the year, up to 30 states could have an average gasoline price of less than $3 a gallon.

The average in Springfield, Missouri, is already below $3, according to Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst at the Oil Price Information Service and GasBuddy.com. Several other cities are on the brink.


Even in Singapore the petrol prices have decreased 2 cents per litre on September 26th, 2014.  Here is a Facebook page from Singapore :


As of 26 Sep 2014, petrol price decreased by 2 cents across the board. 

So why did the petrol price increase by 20 sen per liter in Malaysia?

If the gomen wants to reduce subsidy, go ahead and reduce the subsidy but maintain the old price lah. Because world oil prices are coming down. Singapore pun dah potong harga minyak.

Sebab harga minyak di pasaran dunia sudah turun, kita tak payah potong harga. Just maintain saja harga lama. (The effect is the same as increasing the price.)   Plus the gomen saves money on the fuel subsidy.

But if the gomen increases the fuel price at a time when world oil prices are going down, down, down and cuts the fuel  subsidy at the same time, there is something else going on. The gomen is making excess profit.  

This raises questions about Petronas' own cashflows. Apa pasal, duit tak cukup ke? 

How much will Petronas lose if they decide to "pull out" of the Canada project? Petronas has to come clean on that one.  Blogger UMNO pehe ke?


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