Pakatan to gain whichever way Anwar sodomy appeal goes, say analysts

(From left) DAP secretary-general Lim Guan Eng, opposition leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and PAS deputy president Mohamad Sabu at a ceramah in Pematang Pauh last night. Analysts say Pakatan Rakyat is winning the perception war in the Anwar Sodomy II trial. – The Malaysian Insider pic by Hasnoor Hussain, February 8, 2015. 

Whatever the Federal Court's verdict on Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim's appeal against his sodomy conviction on Tuesday, the opposition Pakatan Rakyat (PR) still has the upper hand over Putrajaya in the perception war, say political analysts.

If the opposition leader is sent to jail, it will be a black mark on Putrajaya's credibility in the eyes of the world, they said ahead of the highly anticipated court decision that could end the PKR de facto leader's political career.

But Anwar in jail could also galvanise the coalition and give new and younger leaders the chance to rise and fill the vacuum left by the veteran politician, they added.

Conversely, a freed Anwar would have the headache of trying to resolve the differences between DAP and PAS, whose strained ties were threatening the coalition's existence, some said, and this would deny younger leaders a chance to develop.

International credibility

Malaysia's credibility would not improve much even if Anwar was freed, said Dr Lim Teck Ghee, as PR could still claim a moral victory by labelling the trial a political expedition by a weakened Barisan Nasional (BN) aimed at destroying the veteran politician and his coalition. 

"The opposition as a whole will gain momentum from the national and international condemnation against the renewed incarceration of the opposition leader," said the Centre for Policy Initiatives director. 

Lim said Putrajaya was out of touch and "clueless" if it thought a guilty verdict would bring closure or that the world would forget about Anwar.

Instead, he said Anwar would become an even more formidable foe as a political martyr, with his case exploited by the opposition and other government critics – both within and outside the country – as evidence of a repressive government. 

Dr James Chin said jailing Anwar would affect Malaysia's international credibility, coming at the time when the country is chairing the Asean regional grouping.

The country would become the target of human rights groups, and Western countries like the United States could raise the matter at future bilateral meetings.

"It will be bad public relations for Malaysia," said Chin, who is the University of Tasmania Asia Institute director.

He added that a guilty verdict might only serve to strengthen Anwar's reputation abroad given the wide belief that the trial was a sham.

And while Putrajaya could trumpet the independence of the judiciary if Anwar were to be freed, it still would not earn the government points.

"People in the international arena do not trust the courts anyway. They think Anwar should not have been charged in the first place," Chin said.

A stronger Pakatan

Even with Anwar in jail, Lim said PR could still be strengthened even with the pact's current fragile stage with PAS at loggerheads with its ally, DAP.

"It is difficult to see how PAS, which has viewed the case as a political conspiracy right from the start, would suddenly do a U-turn and remain passive or abandon Pakatan," he said, referring to the Islamist party's spats with DAP over core ideological issues that have prompted speculations that it may eventually leave the pact.

PR has also grown to become larger than Anwar, and another observer, Dr Oh Ei Sun, said the coalition's leadership and its support base have largely moved beyond the man, with a new generation of leaders from all three partner parties who could and must learn to shoulder the responsibility of leading the pact.

Oh cited PKR deputy president Mohamed Azmin Ali and the party's secretary-general Rafizi Ramli as examples.

He said that in the short term, there could be coordination problems between the parties because of contrasting ideologies of the component parties, but also believed that younger leaders would be more pragmatic and dogmatic.

"People nowadays support Pakatan not so much because they support or sympathise with Anwar – although him going to jail again would further galvanise these sentiments – but primarily because they want to see an end to what they perceive as a corrupt one-party rule," Oh said.

The senior fellow with Singapore's Nanyang Technological University S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies said nothing much would change within the country if Anwar was jailed.

"It will be business as usual. The sympathy factor for Anwar has largely dissipated over the past 17 years. And there will be replacement opposition leaders in waiting," he added.

A free Anwar poses challenges for PR

If Anwar's conviction is overturned and he is freed, analyst Wan Saiful Wan Jan feels PR will have to evaluate its stand on the judiciary as they have often claimed that the courts are not to be trusted.

He said PR would also have to come up with a definitive succession plan, as the uncertainty over Anwar's status these past months have raised questions about who would lead the pact in his absence.

"They really need to think of Pakatan without Anwar. Succession planning must be high up on their priority list. Currently, there are no candidates to replace him, which is a problem," Wan Saiful said.

The Institute of Democracy and Economic Affairs (IDEAS) chief executive officer said that with Anwar in the picture, DAP and PAS would never learn to resolve their differences because they expected the Permatang Pauh MP to act as a mediator.

Without Anwar, the two bickering parties would have no choice but to compromise with one another if they were committed to the opposition pact, he said.

"Anwar is preventing them from moving forward. There is a need for a proper succession plan. Let him become a statesman and allow someone else to do the politicking for Pakatan.”

- TMI