The end of an era. What now?

Unless the coalition comes up with a concrete solution for its future, Anwar's sacrifice may come to naught – and the hopes of the rakyat with it.

COMMENT

The future of Malaysian politics has been changed, irrevocably so. For years, Pakatan Rakyat de facto leader Anwar Ibrahim has been fighting off a repeat of the nightmare that galvanised the entire Reformasi movement. Now that the gavel is struck and the verdict read out, it seems like we are seeing the end of the political career of Anwar, once Prime Minister-in-Waiting, now figurehead of the opposition revolution. Five years in prison may seem fairly short, but it is an eternity in the realm of politics, not to mention that it disqualifies Anwar from contesting in the next general election.

Many have weighed in on the guilty verdict, noting that all submissions made by the defence team were shot down without regard to any credibility those arguments may have had. Certainly, many questions remain, and it is unlikely that many Malaysians who were holding on to the hope of a change in government will view this case as fair.

One thing is for sure, however, now that Anwar has been declared guilty. There will be an enormous outpouring of sympathy for the veteran politician, maybe enough to push Pakatan Rakyat all the way to Putrajaya in the next general election, as predicted by Anwar himself. The conviction will galvanize the opposition coalition to action, and give its member parties common ground on which to stand on come the next election, and maybe even break through the general unease between the coalition members, especially between DAP and PAS.

However, that leaves us with a vital but essentially unanswered question: who then takes up the mantle of Prime Minister once all is said and done, and the battle is won?

Despite Anwar’s exhortations to the coalition to remain united and keep up the struggle, the fact is that it is hard to imagine the coalition keeping itself together past winning the general election. The issue of leadership is key here, as PAS and DAP will each likely push for it own candidate, though it is entirely possible that the DAP will accede to whomever Anwar passes the baton to. PAS however has been the coalition’s loose cannon of late, going against the Pakatan line and refusing to turn out in support of Anwar during his trial. There are also their hudud ambitions in Kelantan, which has irked the DAP as the secular party has always been opposed to the idea.

Now, Anwar selecting a PAS successor is not within the realm of impossibility, but it is far more likely that he will nominate someone from his own party, perhaps Wan Azizah. Azizah has had her fair share of public complaints of late for her distinct lack of presence in Kajang, and she cannot afford to keep up such a lacklustre performance if she is to lead the opposition coalition to the richest prize in politics. Ultimately, it comes down to whether or not Azizah can win a parliamentary seat, even if she does become Pakatan’s candidate.

It is hard to imagine another name being put forth from PKR. After all, while Nurul Izzah may be a likely candidate for the first female Prime Minister, many politicians would look down on her youth and argue that someone so young is incapable of the length and breadth of the responsibility of Prime Minister. The ascension of Azmin Ali is not a remote possibility, but he first must tend to his still newly minted position as Menteri Besar of Selangor.

Malaysia has always had a Malay-Muslim leader, though the Constitution leaves a loophole for the possibility of a minority Prime Minister, if the candidate’s party garners the largest presence within its respective coalition. It is through this loophole that the DAP can ascend to the Prime Minister post, but it is likely that the party’s leaders themselves are cognizant of the outrage that would arise should they attempt such a move. Regardless, should PAS move to install its own candidate, the DAP is not likely to approve as that candidate would look to further PAS’ hudud agenda, and the DAP would reject the notion vehemently.

The coalition may present a united front in the wake of Anwar’s conviction, but once there are spoils to be divided, we will see the true colours of the personalities involved, and they may not be pretty. After all, the nature of politicians demands that they constantly and consistently seek out more and more power.

Unless there is a mutual agreement and a framework by which the coalition can navigate, the rakyat stands to lose the most in the event of Pakatan Rakyat sweeping into Putrajaya in a blaze of glory.

In five years, when Anwar exits the prison and breathes the air of the world outside, he could be stepping out into a wild, unknown world politically. The future is so fluid right now that any number of situations could apply. He could emerge in a bright new future where Pakatan Rakyat has reached Putrajaya and is ushering in a new age of Malaysian politics, or one where BN has crushed the in-fighting parties of Pakatan.

Even as Pakatan’s leadership meets to discuss their battle plans, the question of who becomes Prime Minister will doubtless be on everyone’s mind. Anwar and the heads of the coalition must come up with a concrete solution for the future of the coalition lest Anwar’s final sacrifice comes to naught – and the hopes of the rakyat with it.

One thing is certain; this represents the end of an era, and what comes next, nobody can be entirely sure of.