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Friday, April 10, 2015

MAHATHIR THE POKER GRANDMASTER

The former PM seems to be inviting all of Malaysia to umpire his duel with Najib.
COMMENT
mahathir-najib_600In the game of 5-card stud, 4 cards are revealed while the 5th card is hidden. The stakes are ploughed into the pot based on what one can see from the 4 open-faced cards. The hidden card can strengthen or weaken the exposed hand. The skilful part is reading into what that closed card can do. If it is a weak hand, the 5th card might be a bluff. Sometimes, it might not. It depends on who your opponent is.
Because of this incalculable risk, opponents look for signs that a player may be bluffing. Perspiration on the face, a grin, an uncomfortable smile, or a nervous twitch – these might all be tell-tale signs. So poker players will try not to give away hints by putting on a neutral expression. This is called the “poker face”.
PM Najib has found himself between the devil and the deep blue sea in the high stakes game with Dr Mahathir. The former prime minister has been parading Najib’s open cards on everything from 1MDB, Jho Low to Riza Aziz, and now Sirul. By doing this in plain view of the media, he seems to be inviting all of Malaysia to umpire this duel. But he hasn’t yet shown his own 5th card and Najib would surely love to skip this game for a round of golf instead.
But Najib cannot refuse this game. If he refuses, he looks like he has skeletons to hide. His credibility with Umno leaders and the public takes a nosedive. If he accepts, he would go up against the supreme grandmaster who authored the play book.
The pleas for more private meetings through go-betweens is a sure sign that Najib cannot afford any more public dressing down from Mahathir. It is one thing to claim that international observers might not understand local politics. But for Umno and the Malaysian public, this is a slow motion re-run. Mahathir offered the easy way out to Najib before the Umno general meeting last November. It was spurned. Now that Mahathir has committed himself to the game, there is no turning back. The opportunity for a graceful exit has come and gone.
Mahathir’s probing questions are seeking out Najib’s Achilles heel. Being the incumbent top man, Najib can shrug this off and say that explanations have already been given (as he may believe has been done by his TV interview last night ) and as all his staunchest allies are parroting. This is like holding a shield up to the dragon’s breath. Even if you survive the blast, you lose all your hair and your shield is useless for the second round. That is to say, you can’t keep denying without giving a logical and reasonable explanation at some point in time. Connected Malaysia can judge for itself if the answers are just more evasions or have the ring of truth to them. Mahathir is unconvinced as are many who share this logic.
Which weak card in Najib’s hand will prove to be his Achilles heel? We suspect Mahathir already knows which, and he is merely going through the motions to allow Najib the chance to bow out gracefully before he has to face the dragon’s teeth and claws. Does Najib dare to call Mahathir’s bluff? He will have to pay if he wants to see Mahathir’s hand. All of Malaysia will see Mahathir’s hidden card in due course, if Najib “calls”.
Mahathir has played this game against every prime minister in the history of modern Malaysia.
Mahathir is the inveterate poker face. He is never out of role. Even his casual banter is often indirect and yet full of hints. This is truly trademark Mahathir. You read what you want to when you’re up against the Tun. He gives nothing away and yet his four cards are always open and ready for inspection. He is the one that no one wants to play poker with. He has never lost. Is Mahathir bluffing? You call his bluff at your own peril.

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