ROMPIN – NAJIB LOST

Umar Mukhtar

Irrespective of what minister Hishammuddin claimed with a brave face over Rompin by-elections result, it remained a clear indication that the voters of Rompin are fed-up with the party they traditionally loved.

There was a lower turnout for sure. But mostly of UMNO voters because PAS votes showed not much difference from its PRU13 total. The huge slash in the winning margin is actually embarrassing for the ruling government. If they are not thick-skinned, that is.

Why did they not bother to come out to vote? Over-confidence? To a certain extent yes. They did not wish their beloved party to lose but what the heck. At the same time, they wanted the party leadership to sense their dissatisfaction of the party’s state of affairs. They would not vote against their own party but they are as sure as hell angry at Najib’s 1MDB stone-walling and of course the GST imposed on them.

Those who did not vote ranged from “I couldn’t be bothered” for whatever reasons to “I protest, not to the extent of supporting the opposition”. The pertinent point is they feel so divorced from whatever is going on with the party, so as not to “berjuang bermati-matian“.

Najib supporters, like Salleh Keruak, may cite this as an example how Dr Mahathir’s bitching is negatively affecting the resoluteness of UMNO members. I beg to differ with their perspective. If the members support Najib they do have the option to go out and vote. They did not. A massive turnout and winning margin would be a clear message for Mahathir to stop. It did not happen.

The result is a clear indication that Mahathir’s complaints are being heard. It is perfect Mahathir’s results. He is walking a tightrope by criticising and upsetting party leadership and at the same time soliciting grassroots support, yet not wanting the opposition to capitalise. He went to bed last night smiling. Najib spent time grappling at straws as proof of his popularity.

Rompin :- Mahathir 1 – Najib zero. Now for Permatang Pauh.

The Barisan Nasional is the underdog in the Permatang Pauh by-election, but PKR has their Pakatan Rakyat problems. If PAS’ cold shoulder treatment persists, PKR’s winning margin will be greatly reduced. The Hudud factor, the Wan Azizah factor and the neglect of the constituency factor are all relevant points of contention for the normal PKR dichotomies that will affect its votes. But the Anwar Ibrahim sympathy votes will still hold sway among PKR die-hards.

Barisan Nasional has the same encumbrances as in Rompin. There is little hope that there will be cross-over votes from the opposition supporters. No matter how much they hate each other, they hate BN and GST more. No PAS votes, sorry.

The only way for BN to win or have a good showing is to capitalise on the opposition’s apparent split and turn out in droves. Those that will “berkobar-lobar” be doing that are not too concerned with Mahathir’s tirades. People who just want an end to Anwar’s domination of the constituency and wishful thinking as usual of UMNO resurrection there. Najib wins, maybe.

The truth is somewhere in between. Unless UMNO re-invents itself with fresh blood, it is way past it’s shelf life – Mahathir or no Mahathir, Najib or no Najib. Let’s not forget that and get drowned in this Najib-Mahathir quarrel at the expense of the elephant in the room.

Unless the opposition develops itself as a cohesive force, it will remain lacking the credibility to rule – Anwar’s biggest unforgivable sin to us who yearn for change. He wasted the opportunity we gave him to do that but he pursued personal ambitions and frivolous indulgences instead.

Speak up Permatang Pauh! Though leaders will hear only what they want to hear.