by Rizuan Shamsudin
OPINION: After Muhyiddin Yassin’s dismissal from the Cabinet and reported talks between the Opposition and some quarters within Umno for a no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Najib Razak in Parliament, the focus now is on PAS.
The second biggest Malay party might be the only hope for Najib.
According to the statement made by 17 opposition MPs, including chairman of Gerakan Harapan Baru Mohammad Sabu, a no-confidence vote might be proposed during the next Dewan Rakyat session, from October until December, or even earlier.
Though there are only 87 opposition MPs compared to 134 from BN, Najib can still be ousted if BN MPs who are also Muhyiddin and Shafie Apdal’s supporters join forces.
Shafie has his influence in Sabah, which has 25 parliamentary seats. In Johor, not only half of the MPs are with Muhyiddin, the royal family too is not too fond of Najib.
This group of MPs has promised to form a caretaker government until GE14.
This government surely will continue the ongoing investigations into 1MDB and other scandals.
If Dr Mahathir Mohamad – Najib’s most prolific critic – goes all out, he might want to urge MPs who are on Muhyiddin’s side to vote against Najib.
The only obstacle now is PAS MPs who are loyal to president Abdul Hadi Awang and spiritual leader Haron Din.
Hadi might use the opportunity to pressure Najib to allow Hudud law to be tabled in parliament, in exchange for support from PAS MPs.
PAS has 21 MPs, including those from the progressive faction – Khalid Samad, Dr Hatta Ramli, Kamaruddin Jaafar, Mujahid Yusuf Rawa and Dr Mariah Mahmod.
If the Opposition plans to oust Najib through a no-confidence vote, it needs the support of at least 24 MPs from BN.
On the other hand, PAS can offer 16 MPs (minus the Progressives) to Najib.
Thus it is not that easy to vote Najib out.
PAS’ stand on the 1MDB saga is clear from the very beginning – it won’t echo the call for Najib’s resignation.
Even though deputy president Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man occasionally criticises Najib, Abdul Hadi has never criticised the prime minister.
Haron Din even dismissed allegations that RM2.6 billion was deposited in Najib’s personal accounts.
These two figures who enjoy complete loyalty from PAS members must have their own reasons for not criticising Najib.
So, there is no reason to doubt PAS’ support for Najib until the next GE.
The support is made clearer by Hadi’s statement on the reshuffle.
"We cannot say we agree or not (with the new Cabinet line-up). We'll see how they carry out their tasks, especially on issues affecting the people and the country," Hadi was reported as saying by Astro Awani.
If PAS continues to support Umno and Najib, the party will risk losing its popularity among its support base – the Malay voters.
It is unlikely hat Najib will allow hudud to be passed, for fear of losing Sabah and Sarawak MPs who will never agree to Islamic laws.
Worse, Sabah and Sarawak MPs are never known to be blind supporters, and can at any time shift their support the other way.
The irony is that if hudud is not passed in the coming Dewan Rakyat session, most of PAS supporters might leave the party.
The truth is, Malay politics should never go back to the Reformasiera.
Enough damages have been done during the 1998-2000 period, caused by Mahathir’s desperation to cling to power, amid the economic crisis.
A new political approach needs to be made, beyond racial politics of Umno and PAS.
All Malay leaders in Umno, PAS, PKR and other parties who love the country might have to come to some kind of national consensus.
Our current political crisis is at a critical stage, what’s more with the national debt now at RM600 billion and household debt at RM800 billion.
With the 1MDB debt of RM42 billion and various GLCs’ debts guaranteed by the federal government, our economy, sooner or later, will surely collapse.
Malaysia will become just like Greece if our MPs are still not willing to discard their differences and start cooperating.
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