Where everybody thinks they can't win

The above picture is the two feuding Division Head of UMNO Sungai Besar, Dato Mohd Jamal Yunos and his Deputy, Dato Ramli Nordin together during a recent visit by DPM Dato Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and Election Director for the Sungai Besar by-election, Dato Noh Omar.

The Utusan report on Tuesday using the picture was calling for unity. Supposedly both the feuding parties in Sungai Besar could discard their differences to work together and defend UMNO's incumbency at Sungai Besar.

Zahid was also reported saying BN defend Sungai Besar as underdog and do a Telok Intan. The similarity between Telok Intan and Sungai Besar will be internal quarrel within the opposing party, or in this case, opposition parties.

The difference is DAP lost Telok Intan because headquarter insist in putting a candidate not accepted by grassroot. BN may have candidacy issue if Dato Jamal run or Noh Omar is in his usual self to strengthen his power base than winning elections.  

The picture and the media report of the visit on Tuesday indicate there is also an internal issue within Sungai Besar. BN is not confident of winning but hope to pull an upset.

However, it is not only UMNO or BN that will or want to run but have no confidence of winning but all the interested opposition parties. In the few conversation we had with our sources, that seemed to be the case. PKR or Amanah or PAS or DAP may not say so in public but they are saying they can't win

PKR

The Sundaily is helping to endorse PKR to run for the Sungai Besar seat and pressure PAS and Amanah to quit. The fact that Azmin is busily negotiating with PAS in confidence only indicate he is not confident PKR could win a three corner fight.

It is no secret that the consensus believe that BN will win handsomely in a three corner fight. Question is who among PAS or PAN or PKR will budge.

What is also said in private is PKR also have no confidence to win a straight fight. Scott Ng in FMT expressed the view that PKR may not win because of internal strife within.

Good thing someone wrote of their concern on the internal fighting within PKR. Anwar's recent statement at the court to confirm his letter to warn against playing to Tun Dr Mahathir's tune will start the war between Wan Azizah and Azmin. 

PAS

PAS have stated their stance to run in both Sg Besar and Kuala Kangsar where they have been traditionally running. This have been repeated several times. Now PKR member Tan Sri Muhammad Taib already asked to allow PAS to run and let it be a straight fight against BN.

It was the same stance Tun M made last week before he sensed that PAN and DAP are opposed to allow PAS to run and PKR too are interested but is doing the back channel to get PAS to withdraw. The common view is PAS will not get the Chinese votes and they also knew it thus BN will have an easy win over them.

PAS's insist in running in their traditional area so the insinuation by Tun M that PAS is giving an easy win to UMNO. Dato Nik Amar pretend not to understand as he argued that they are not giving an easy win by also running. 


Dato Ibrahim Ali share the same view with Tun M and suggested PAS only run in Kuala Kangsar. Despite denying Perkasa will follow Tun M in the campaign, the common inclination between Ibrahim with Tun M and Azmin is glaring.

Ibrahim could be leading the way for PAS in the same manner Sun and Mat Taib is doing. After all, it is believed Ibrahim the politician is cosying up with PAS for another chance for them to give way for him to run at Pasir Mas for the next general election.

Amanah

In anticipation that the negotiation between PKR and PAS will breakdown, Amanah has already announced they will run in both Kuala Kangsar and Sungai Besar. The impression is Amanah will be there where PAS is. It happened at Betong Maru, Sarawak so that is the possibility.

Amanah have to maintain the perception that they are a strong allies of DAP and are ideologically at loggerhead with PAS. However, there is a sceptical view that claimed Amanah is just a political party for the losers at the last PAS party election to have role.  

Their role is speculated to maintain "PAS" relationship with DAP without PAS having to bear the burden of being in alliance with DAP.

PAS will build up relationship with UMNO and use the "perpaduan ummah" game to win over UMNO supporters to PAS. They will pretend to be at loggerhead with Amanah. PAS claim Amanah is running at Sungai Besar just to destroy PAS and not UMNO.  

That could be mere theory but currently, Amanah may have a chance in the event there is a three corner fight against PAS and UMNO. They will get DAP support to woe the Chinese voters.

Such possibility is quite logical but can it be done with Mat Sabu as candidate? Ibrahim Ali, Mat Sabu old friend from ITM days, laughed off Amanah's chances. Amanah knew it that with only one or two branches in Sungai Besar, Mat Sabu will only be an entertainer at Sungai Besar.

In Sungai Besar, the Javanese is an important factor. Mat Sabu talks in northern accent.

DAP

DAP is not running in Sungai Besar. However, one of the state assembly seat, Sekincan belongs to DAP. The state assemblyman is Ng Suee Lin, the man who made an issue of the house of former MB and assemblyman for Sungai Panjang, Dato Dr Khir Toyo.

Our source with contact with DAP are claiming DAP have no confident in Pakatan Harapan to win. Is it because they have made up their mind to avenge what happen in Sarawak in the vent of PKR candidacy?

DAP remain vocal against PAS and also PKR's backdoor negotiation with PAS. The negotiation with PAS will not only put into question PAS true intention in their so-called cooperation with UMNO but also put into question PKR's commitment to PH.

Azmin wants PAS into PH but Wan Azizah has expressed her opposition to it. Azmn game to have PAS as insurance have revived DAP's call for the three PAS exco to resign for not giving way to PH.  
PAS cannot not run. It will send the wrong signal to UMNO supporters. And it will be a giveaway that they are in collusion with Azmin. Pro-opposition commentators are already concern with PKR's dangerous flirtation with PAS. There is no such thing as being half pregnant with PAS. 

By the look of it, DAP could only give their support to Amanah.

Chinese did deliver some vote for BN in the last general election. If the promises were delivered, BN could still pick up some Chinese votes. However, there is the possibility that Chinese voters would just stay away then take any chances to commit with any one in this time of uncertainty. 

Pro-Tun

Pro-Tun knows they cannot win if they were to put up any candidate. They do not have time to get a candidate and put a machinery together.

It means they also believe they could not win. They did try to approach someone to run. But it was a bad call. Should have done their homework.

Their role now is only to "kacau daun". 

Tun M have already call on his supporters to make sure BN loses. He asked the voters not to vote for BN. To some UMNO supporters, it means Tun M have no loyalty to the party but only to his selfish agenda. Loyalty was the theme is the recent 70 years anniversary celebration of UMNO.

Politically, Tun M needs a BN lost to negate the momentum built from the BN Sarawak landslide win.

He may have bought into some armchair political analyst at some ivory tower sayingthe two by-elections are BN's true test of strength. Indicator maybe, but true test not quite so. If opposition loses, they could kiss their dream of power goodbye.

Nothing like a good Sungai Besar kampong lunch for Thursday. Sungai Besar by-election should be a fun one to watch from afar. - Another Brick in the Wall